Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.
Priced for a broken direct seller at a one-year low. China is 8.5% of sales, gross margin is at a four-year high, and net cash is 27.2% of the market value.
- Price (29 Sep 26)
- $12.76
- Price target (12m)
- $14.80
- Scenario value*
- $14.91
- Bear / Base / Bull
- $10.48 / $14.84 / $19.49
- Market cap
- $224.6M
- Enterprise value
- $163.5M
- Free float
- 71.5% of S/O
- Avg daily vol, 3m
- 167k / $2.8M
- Short interest
- 6.4% float, +2.1pt
- Institutional own.
- 66.9%
- Largest holder
- Wynnefield, 14.1%
- Insider and board
- 3.4%
*Probability-weighted, 25/50/25, over 12 to 24 months. Price target is the base case, rounded to the nearest ten cents.
The thesis
- China is 8.5% of sales, and because NATR never reports it, the market discounts the whole company. Solving from management's August growth rates puts China at roughly $41M of sales.
- The break in China looks like execution, not demand. Growth above 35% for three quarters turned to a 20% decline in one, after an Autoship push and the December buy-out of two Chinese joint ventures.
- The underlying business is at a four-year high while the stock is at a one-year low. Gross margin reached 73.7% in the June quarter, and adjusted EBITDA rose 21.7% to $49.4M in FY2025.
- Net cash and no debt maturities put a floor under the shares. Net cash of $61.1M after leases is 27.2% of the market value, against a bear case of $10.48 and a target of $14.80.
Read the whole thing
The business, the market, the financials, the valuation with its scenarios, the risks and the catalysts. A PDF of 6 pages, 672 KB, sent to you, free.
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