M-tron Industries, Inc.
Priced as a defense parts maker that ran too far and diluted holders. Backlog of $84.0m covers most of next year, and $96.2m of cash with no debt funds acquisitions.
- Price (29 Sep 26)
- $76.73
- Price target (12m)
- $89.70
- Scenario value*
- $87.12
- Bear / Base / Bull
- $61.93 / $89.70 / $107.16
- Market cap
- $333.4M
- Enterprise value
- $237.3M
- Free float
- 94.0% of S/O
- Avg daily vol, 3m
- 185k / $15.5M
- Short interest
- 8.3% float, +1.3pt
- Institutional own.
- 67.2%
- Largest holder
- T. Rowe Price, 5.9%
- Insider and board
- 5.7%
*Probability-weighted, 25/50/25, over 12 to 24 months. Price target is the base case, rounded to the nearest ten cents.
The thesis
- The margin dip is non-cash pay and tariffs, not pricing. Adding back about $0.5m of bonus stock compensation puts Q2 gross margin near 44.5%, in line with 44.4% for all of 2025.
- The backlog already covers most of next year. Backlog was $84.0m at June, up 37.2% and about 1.4x trailing revenue, and net income rose 19.9% while diluted EPS fell on the share count.
- The balance sheet turned Mtron into a buyer. It holds $96.2m of cash, no borrowings and an undrawn revolver, and management said it still hopes to close a deal this year.
- The next leg of growth is already being contracted for 2028. Defense primes signed seven-year missile agreements, and products launched a year ago have brought in $12m of orders.
Read the whole thing
The business, the market, the financials, the valuation with its scenarios, the risks and the catalysts. A PDF of 6 pages, 704 KB, sent to you, free.
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