Magnera Corporation
Priced as an over-levered spin-off at 5.5x trailing EBITDA. Half the merger savings are banked, and $90M to $110M of free cash flow is going to debt, moving value to shareholders.
- Price (29 Sep 26)
- $11.63
- Price target (12m)
- $15.40
- Scenario value*
- $15.42
- Bear / Base / Bull
- $4.55 / $15.44 / $26.23
- Market cap
- $416.4M
- Enterprise value
- $2,037.4M
- Free float
- 98.9% of S/O
- Avg daily vol, 3m
- 420k / $5.3M
- Short interest
- 5.6% float, -2.6pt
- Institutional own.
- 102.8%, +2.9pt
- Largest holder
- Newtyn Management, 7.8%
- Insider and board
- 1.1%
*Probability-weighted, 25/50/25, over 12 months. Price target is the base case, rounded to the nearest ten cents.
The thesis
- Most of the merger savings are already banked. Synergies still to come fell from $68M in November 2025 to $35M by 6 August 2026, and our base case credits less than half of what remains.
- The last piece of the separation still runs on Berry's systems. Moving off the transition services agreement removes a cost line and a control deficiency named in the 6 August 2026 10-Q.
- The cash flow pays the debt down. Fiscal 2026 free cash flow guidance of $90M to $110M is about a quarter of the $416M market value, and $100M of repayment adds about $2.80 a share at an unchanged enterprise value.
- The Americas already pass costs through and the Rest of World is catching up. Americas margins were 14.9% in the June quarter against 7.3% abroad, and each point of Rest of World margin is about $15M of EBITDA.
Read the whole thing
The business, the market, the financials, the valuation with its scenarios, the risks and the catalysts. A PDF of 5 pages, 585 KB, sent to you, free.
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