Inogen, Inc.
Priced as a declining oxygen-device maker. US unit volume rose by high single digits last quarter while US sales fell, and net cash covers 75% of the market value.
- Price (29 Sep 26)
- $5.37
- Price target (12m)
- $8.90
- Scenario value*
- $9.05
- Bear / Base / Bull
- $3.81 / $8.94 / $14.54
- Market cap
- $142.5M
- Enterprise value
- $35.6M
- Free float
- 87.5% of S/O
- Avg daily vol, 3m
- 262k / $1.5M
- Short interest
- 6.3% float
- Institutional own.
- 72.3%, +2.9pt
- Largest holder
- Yuwell, 9.9%
- Insider and board
- 2.5%
*Probability-weighted, 25/50/25, over 12 to 24 months. Price target is the base case, rounded to the nearest ten cents.
The thesis
- An industry buyer paid about twice today's price. Yuwell, a Chinese respiratory-device maker, paid $10.36 a share for 9.9% in early 2025 and has not reduced the stake, and the company bought back 1.1M shares in H1 2026 at $6.55.
- The board changed. Kent Lake's April 2026 cooperation agreement added Vafa Jamali, who sold ZimVie at a 99% premium to its 90-day average price, and his impact has not reached reported results yet.
- The US decline is a channel shift, not lost demand. US direct-to-consumer sales fell from $96.0m in 2023 to $61.9m in 2025 while wholesale sales rose from $66.2m to $94.6m, and Q2 2026 unit volume grew.
- The balance sheet gives the turnaround a runway. Net cash of $106.8m against a $143m market cap, no debt and $22.5m left on the buyback limit the downside.
Read the whole thing
The business, the market, the financials, the valuation with its scenarios, the risks and the catalysts. A PDF of 6 pages, 693 KB, sent to you, free.
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