Angi Inc.
Angi runs a home-services marketplace. Q2 revenue fell 10.9% and leads 13%, but Pro win rates rose nearly 20% and fixed costs fell 30.8%, so earnings could turn before revenue does.
- Price (14 Oct 26)
- $6.11
- Price target (12m)
- $10.74
- Scenario value*
- $12.73
- Bear/Base/Bull
- 1.98 / 13.17 / 22.58
- Market cap
- $247.8M
- Enterprise value
- $459.1M
- Free float
- 78.8% of S/O
- Avg daily vol, 3m
- 774k / $4.1M
- Short interest
- 14.8% float
- Institutional own.
- about 80%
- Largest holder
- BlackRock, 12.5%
- Insider and board
- 3.3%
*Probability-weighted year-end 2028 value, undiscounted. Market cap on 40.6M shares (10-Q, 31 Jul 2026). EV adds $400.0M notes at face and deducts $188.7M cash at 30 Jun 2026. Prices and 52-week range: Yahoo Finance closes.
The thesis
- Better lead conversion is early evidence of a potential earnings inflection. Q2 Pro win rates rose nearly 20%, homeowner repeat rates increased 21%, and Large Pro and national-partner revenue grew 20%, despite leads falling 13%. With fixed expenses down 30.8%, stable revenue could drive outsized EBITDA growth if marketing spend stays controlled.
- Angi's AI Front Desk is progressing toward paid commercialization. July’s pilot was automatically booking contractor appointments, with roughly 80% of participating Pros continuing to use it. No subscription revenue is assumed in the base case.
- International's estimated value could be unlocked as strategic restrictions ease. Angi's second-quarter impairment test implies roughly $486 million of International fair value (derived: the 10-Q puts it 70% above carrying value), exceeding the company's roughly $459 million enterprise value, though not an executable sale price.
- Proactive debt management could mitigate the 2028 refinancing risk. Angi retired $100.0 million of notes below face value and maintained an undrawn $175.0 million revolver at June-end. Net leverage of about 2.0x on FY2026 consensus EBITDA (1.6x trailing) suggests financing flexibility, though negative first-half free cash flow limits further debt cuts.
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